Covering July 2024 – October 14, 2025 | Source: TrendVision™

The Napa County land market has entered a period of sustained buyer advantage, with inventory levels well above balanced-market thresholds, slowing sales, and price volatility across segments. Below, I break down the data into clear trends, year-over-year comparisons, and actionable insights for buyers, sellers, and investors.

Market Overview: A Buyer’s Market Defined by Inventory Surplus

Over the past 15 months, Napa County’s land sector has consistently reflected buyer’s market conditions, with months of inventory averaging nearly 30 months—five times higher than the 6-month benchmark of a balanced market. Inventory peaked at 67 months in February 2025 and stood at 22.9 months in September 2025, underscoring the gap between supply and buyer demand.

Key factors at play include elevated interest rates, selective buyer behavior, and possible caution within the wine industry. Sellers are facing longer marketing times and must align pricing strategies to reflect these realities.

Inventory Trends: Gradual Buildup, Especially Post-Winter

Active listings have steadily increased, rising 8.8% from 147 in July 2024 to 160 in September 2025. New listings average about 16 per month, creating a slow but steady accumulation of supply.

• Seasonal Dip: Inventory briefly fell to 119 in January 2025—likely seasonal—before climbing steadily through spring and summer.
• Current Snapshot (Oct 14, 2025): 153 active listings, up 7% year-over-year.

Takeaway: Inventory growth is outpacing sales, giving buyers more choice and leverage in negotiations.

Sales Activity: Consistently Low with Volatile Pendings

Closed sales averaged just 5.7 per month, with no clear seasonal pattern. Pendings were similarly modest at 6.1 per month but swung dramatically—from 13 in August 2025 to just 4 in September. This volatility suggests inconsistent buyer confidence rather than a steady underlying demand trend.

Q3 YoY Comparison:

• Sold: 20 in Q3 2025 vs. 21 in Q3 2024 (–4.8%)
• Pending: 23 vs. 19 (+21.1%)

While pendings improved year-over-year in Q3, the overall volume remains low compared to available inventory.

Pricing: Rising Ask Prices, Volatile Sold Prices

One of the most striking trends is the disconnect between list and sale prices:

• Average Active Price: Increased 8.3% YoY (Q3 2025 vs. Q3 2024), from $1.73M to $1.88M.
• Average Sold Price: Dropped sharply 74.9% YoY in Q3, due to fewer high-value closings.
• YTD Avg. Sold Price: up 6.1% from the prior year—largely because of a handful of premium transactions.

Median sold prices are typically well below averages, indicating that most sales are for smaller or lower-value parcels. However, the occasional $2M+ sale spikes averages, showing a bifurcated market between entry-level land buyers and high-net-worth vineyard/development investors.

Days on Market: Climbing Over Time

Properties are taking longer to sell:

• Jul 2024: 172 average DOM
• Sep 2025: 237 average DOM (+37.8%)
• YTD 2025: Slight improvement over prior year (145 vs. 154 DOM), thanks to faster sales in spring.

The recent surge to 237 DOM in September indicates a slowing market momentum heading into fall.

Discounting: Sellers Conceding Less, but Still Negotiating

Sellers received 92% of original list price in September 2025, up from 70% the previous September.
 YTD averages remain around 77%, signaling that while discounts have narrowed somewhat, price negotiations remain standard.

For context: In today’s snapshot (Oct 14, 2025), properties are closing at 99% of original list, but this is based on very low sales volume (2 sales MTD).

Today's Market (Oct 14, 2025): A Slow Start to Fall

• Active Listings: 153 (+7% YoY)
• Sold MTD: 2 (down 71.4% MoM)
• Pending MTD: 4 (flat YoY)
• Avg. Days on Market: 90 (down 62% MoM)
• Avg. Sold Price: $171K (–51.1% YoY)
• Months of Inventory: 34.5 (↑245% MoM)

While days on market have shortened compared to September, the extremely low sales count suggests this is more of a statistical anomaly than a market turnaround.

What This Means for Buyers & Sellers

For Buyers:

• Significant Leverage: With inventory at 22–34 months, buyers can negotiate aggressively—especially for parcels that have been on the market 200+ days.
• Selective Premium Opportunities: Watch for occasional high-value vineyard or development parcels coming to market; these can offer long-term upside if acquired strategically.

For Sellers:

• Pricing Discipline is Key: Overpricing leads to long market times and deep eventual discounts.
• Differentiate Your Parcel: Parcels with clear water access, desirable zoning, vineyard potential, or entitlements will stand out.
• Be Prepared to Negotiate: Even with narrower discount rates, the buyer pool remains thin.

Looking Ahead: Q4 2025 and Spring 2026

If current trends hold, Napa County’s land and lots market will likely see further inventory build-up through Q4 2025, with downward price pressure unless buyer activity picks up in spring 2026. Economic conditions, interest rates, and developments in the wine industry will all play a role in shaping demand.

Key Stats at a Glance

Final Thoughts

Napa County’s land and lots market is in a transitional phase. Elevated inventory, slower sales, and price volatility create opportunities for strategic buyers, while sellers must adapt pricing and marketing strategies to stand out in a crowded field.

Whether you're considering selling a vineyard parcel, buying a development site, or simply tracking the market for future investment, staying informed is critical.

If you'd like a parcel-specific valuation or strategy session, reach out for a private consultation. Napa’s land market rewards those who act strategically—and early.